With only a handful of days left before the election, it’s time not only to check the current voter turnout, but to do some historical figuring. Of interest to me right now isn’t just the frequently-cited low turnout for off-year May elections, but any possible trends which might indicate what the turnout as of today — 11% — could mean for the eventual final turnout come next Tuesday
Turnout in May 2005 was 17%. On the Thursday before the election, it stood at 11%, which is 65% of the eventual total turnout.
Turnout in May 2003 was 56% (the historical exception, because of the Multnomah County income tax vote). On the Thursday before the election, it stood at 30%, which is 54% of the eventual total turnout.
Turnout in May 2001 was 23%. On the Thursday before the election, it stood at 17% , which is 74% of the eventual turnout.
The website for the Multnomah County Elections Division doesn’t appear to have the daily numbers for 1999 (was this before or after vote-by-mail?), and 1997 was prior to the adoption of vote-by-mail, so we’ll have to just use this small sample from recent history. You can see that it would seem that by this point in an off-year May election, anywhere from just over half to about three-fourths of ballots have already been returned.
If we use the above as the templates, what could it mean for final turnout next Tuesday?
If today’s current turnout of 11% turns out to be 65% of the eventual total turnout, that total turnout will be 17%.
If today’s current turnout of 11% turns out to be 54% of the eventual total turnout, that total turnout will be 21%.
If today’s current turnout of 11% turns out to be 74% of the eventual total turnout, that total turnout will be 15%.
So, if the admittedly-small sampling of the pace of voter turnout over the previous three off-year May elections shows a pattern which holds, total voter turnout come next Tuesday could be anywhere from 15% to 21%.
For what it’s worth, my prediction is 21%. But former City elections official Susan Francois predicts 32%. In five days, we find out which one of us is at least in the ballpark.
For what it’s worth, your prediction I’m sure will be closer to the mark. My high ball prediction was perhaps influenced by the 35th Anniversary of the Price is Right - guess high in case the others guess too low. Or maybe it was the jersey air clouding my judgement.
It will probably be a miracle if we break 20%.